What are my playoff odds?
Enter your league's settings and your record right now, or your final record, to see how often teams in your spot made the playoffs.
10 of 14 games played · 4 left
Made the playoffs from 5-5 after 10 games
49%
Coin-flip territory
On the bubble
All leagues · 12 teams · 6 playoff spots · 14 games
What's next
These odds come from every league with these settings. See your own league's live playoff odds
In 12-team leagues where 6 teams make the playoffs, an 8-6 team got in 94% of the time and a 7-7 team 46%. With 10 teams and 6 spots, 7-7 got in 83% of the time.
MIDSEASON
Your record right now: what it's worth
Your record says a lot long before the season ends. In 12-team, 6-spot leagues, a team at .500 is a coin flip at every point in the season: 50% at 2-2, 50% at 4-4, 49% at 6-6. Each game over or under .500 moves the odds by roughly 25 points early on.
A 1-0 start made the playoffs 62% of the time and 0-1 38%. Teams that started 0-4 still got in 9% of the time, and 5-5 after ten games was a coin flip at 49%.
| Games played | −4 | −2 | .500 | +2 | +4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After 2 | – | 0-227% | 1-150% | 2-073% | – |
| After 4 | 0-49% | 1-326% | 2-250% | 3-174% | 4-090% |
| After 6 | 1-58% | 2-424% | 3-350% | 4-276% | 5-192% |
| After 8 | 2-66% | 3-522% | 4-450% | 5-378% | 6-294% |
| After 10 | 3-74% | 4-619% | 5-549% | 6-480% | 7-396% |
| After 12 | 4-81% | 5-713% | 6-649% | 7-585% | 8-499% |
Columns are games over or under .500 at that point, in 12-team, 6-spot leagues with 14 games. The calculator above covers every week and format.
THE BUBBLE
The playoff line is one win wide
In 12-team, 6-spot leagues, 7-7 teams got in 46% of the time. One more win, 8-6, got in 94%. One fewer, 6-8, got in 4%. Every format below has the same shape: the single win that takes a record from under 50% to over it is worth 45 to 63 points.
| League format | Teams that make it | Usually out (under 50%) | Usually in (50%+) | Safe (95%+) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 teams · 6 spots · 14 games | 6 of 12 | 7-7 46% | 8-6 94% | 9-5 99%+ |
| 10 teams · 6 spots · 14 games | 6 of 10 | 6-8 25% | 7-7 83% | 8-6 99% |
| 12 teams · 6 spots · 13 games | 6 of 12 | 6-7 17% | 7-6 80% | 8-5 99% |
| 10 teams · 6 spots · 13 games | 6 of 10 | 5-8 6% | 6-7 53% | 7-6 96% |
| 12 teams · 8 spots · 14 games | 8 of 12 | 5-9 5% | 6-8 50% | 7-7 96% |
| 10 teams · 4 spots · 14 games | 4 of 10 | 7-7 13% | 8-6 71% | 9-5 98% |
"Usually out" is the best record that got in less than half the time; "Usually in" and "Safe" are the lowest records that got in at least 50% and 95% of the time.
THE FORMAT
Playoff spots matter more than league size
What decides your odds is the share of the league that gets in. A 7-7 team got in 13% of the time when 4 of 10 teams made it, and 96% when 8 of 12 did.
| League format | Share that makes it | 6-8 | 7-7 | 8-6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-team, 4-spot leagues | 40% | under 1% | 13% | 71% |
| 12-team, 6-spot leagues | 50% | 4% | 46% | 94% |
| 10-team, 6-spot leagues | 60% | 25% | 83% | 99% |
| 12-team, 8-spot leagues | 67% | 50% | 96% | 99%+ |
THE SCORING
Does PPR or superflex change it?
Not much. In 12-team, 6-spot leagues with 14 games, each scoring and quarterback format lands within a few points of the others at every record. The calculator above has the full split for every format.
| 12-team, 6-spot leagues | 6-8 | 7-7 | 8-6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| All leagues | 4% | 46% | 94% |
| PPR | 4% | 46% | 94% |
| Half PPR | 4% | 46% | 94% |
| Standard | 5% | 47% | 94% |
| 1 QB | 4% | 47% | 95% |
| 2 QB / Superflex | 5% | 43% | 91% |
THE LONG SHOTS
Long shots and near misses
In 12-team, 6-spot leagues, about 2% of teams with a losing record made the playoffs anyway, and about 2% of teams with a winning record missed. A winning record is almost always enough there, and a losing one almost never is.
THE FULL BOARD
Playoff odds by final record
Every common format in full: teams, playoff spots and regular-season games, all scoring and QB formats together.
12-team leagues, 6 playoff spots, 14-game regular season
| Record | Bar | Made it | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13-1 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 12-2 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 11-3 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 10-4 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 9-5 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 8-6 | 94% | Likely in | |
| 7-7 | 46% | Bubble | |
| 6-8 | 4% | Long shot | |
| 5-9 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 4-10 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 3-11 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 2-12 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 1-13 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 0-14 | under 1% | Long shot |
10-team leagues, 6 playoff spots, 14-game regular season
| Record | Bar | Made it | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13-1 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 12-2 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 11-3 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 10-4 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 9-5 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 8-6 | 99% | Lock | |
| 7-7 | 83% | Likely in | |
| 6-8 | 25% | Bubble | |
| 5-9 | 2% | Long shot | |
| 4-10 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 3-11 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 2-12 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 1-13 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 0-14 | under 1% | Long shot |
12-team leagues, 6 playoff spots, 13-game regular season
| Record | Bar | Made it | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12-1 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 11-2 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 10-3 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 9-4 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 8-5 | 99% | Lock | |
| 7-6 | 80% | Likely in | |
| 6-7 | 17% | Long shot | |
| 5-8 | 1% | Long shot | |
| 4-9 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 3-10 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 2-11 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 1-12 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 0-13 | under 1% | Long shot |
10-team leagues, 6 playoff spots, 13-game regular season
| Record | Bar | Made it | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12-1 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 11-2 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 10-3 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 9-4 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 8-5 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 7-6 | 96% | Lock | |
| 6-7 | 53% | Likely in | |
| 5-8 | 6% | Long shot | |
| 4-9 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 3-10 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 2-11 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 1-12 | under 1% | Long shot |
12-team leagues, 8 playoff spots, 14-game regular season
| Record | Bar | Made it | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12-2 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 11-3 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 10-4 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 9-5 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 8-6 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 7-7 | 96% | Lock | |
| 6-8 | 50% | Likely in | |
| 5-9 | 5% | Long shot | |
| 4-10 | 1% | Long shot | |
| 3-11 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 2-12 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 1-13 | under 1% | Long shot |
10-team leagues, 4 playoff spots, 14-game regular season
| Record | Bar | Made it | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12-2 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 11-3 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 10-4 | 99%+ | Lock | |
| 9-5 | 98% | Lock | |
| 8-6 | 71% | Likely in | |
| 7-7 | 13% | Long shot | |
| 6-8 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 5-9 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 4-10 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 3-11 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 2-12 | under 1% | Long shot | |
| 1-13 | under 1% | Long shot |
THE FINE PRINT
How to read these numbers
These are final regular-season records, so they answer "what record gets in", not "what are my odds with three games left". For that you need your league's schedule and standings, which is what live playoff odds use. Tiebreakers, divisions and points-for decide the teams on the bubble, which is why the same record can get in one season and miss the next.
The calculator's scoring and quarterback filters use each season's settings as we read them from the league's scoring rules and starting lineups. 2 QB / Superflex means the lineup had a second QB slot or a superflex slot. Seasons we couldn't classify, and unusual scoring like quarter-point PPR, count under All only.
Common questions
What are my playoff odds at 5-5?
About a coin flip. In 12-team leagues with 6 playoff spots, teams that were 5-5 after ten games made the playoffs 49% of the time. Win the next game and it was 68%; lose it and it was 31%.
Can an 0-4 team make the fantasy playoffs?
Yes, but it's uphill. Teams that started 0-4 made the playoffs 9% of the time in 12-team, 6-spot leagues, against 90% for 4-0 teams.
How much does week 1 matter in fantasy football?
It matters. A 1-0 start made the playoffs 62% of the time in 12-team, 6-spot leagues, and 0-1 38%.
How many wins do you need to make the fantasy football playoffs?
In 12-team leagues with 6 playoff spots and 14 games, 8-6 got in 94% of the time and 9-5 was safe at 99%+. With 10 teams and 6 spots, 7-7 got in 83% of the time.
Can a 7-7 team make the fantasy football playoffs?
Often. In 12-team leagues with 6 playoff spots, 7-7 teams made it 46% of the time. In 10-team leagues with 6 spots it was 83%.
Can a 6-8 team make the fantasy playoffs?
Sometimes. 6-8 teams got in 4% of the time in 12-team, 6-spot leagues and 25% in 10-team, 6-spot leagues. The more of the league that makes the playoffs, the better a losing record does.
Is 8-6 good enough for the playoffs?
Usually. 8-6 made the playoffs 94% of the time in 12-team, 6-spot leagues and 99% in 10-team, 6-spot leagues.
Does PPR or superflex change what record makes the playoffs?
Barely. In 12-team, 6-spot leagues, 7-7 got in 46% of the time in PPR, 46% in half PPR and 47% in standard scoring. It was 47% with one starting QB and 43% in 2 QB and superflex leagues. League size and playoff spots matter far more than scoring.
Where do these numbers come from?
From completed regular seasons, 2010 to 2025, in head-to-head points leagues connected to Fantasy Hall of Fame from Yahoo, Sleeper, ESPN, CBS, MFL, Fleaflicker and Fantrax. The methodology page explains what's included.